BY TRAPEZE GROUP THE TRANSPORT NETWORK OF TOMORROWThe Transport Network of Tomorrow Now on Audiobook CLICK HERE or search for Trapeze Group via your Smartphone app to listen on Soundcloud. 2Contents Introduction: A Vision for the Future of Transport Chapter 1: The Internet of Things 5 10 The Transport Network of Tomorrow How public transport will become as convenient as driving a car – and the technology that will take us there. Chapter 2: Electrification 17 Chapter 3: Shared and Smart Ticketing 22 Chapter 4: Advanced Computing 27 Chapter 5: Dynamic Scheduling 32 Conclusion: Building A New Future For Transport 37 34Introduction: A Vision for the Future of Transport 5 New forms of transport have long been a core trope of science fiction and futuristic films. From flying cars to amphibious vehicles, many fantastical machines have captured people’s imaginations over the years. Yet in reality the most transformative innovations in this sector are less related to the types of vehicle being developed, and more to do with overhauling the very structure of the industry – particularly when it comes to public transport. This point remains true in today’s post-Covid-19 world – perhaps more so than ever. Even before the pandemic, we were rapidly moving towards a world in which public transport is as convenient to use as is turning the ignition key in a privately-owned car today – a change which will deliver a raft of benefits for individuals, communities and the public and private sectors. While Covid-19 has undoubtedly altered the path and perhaps accelerated the requirement to change, other factors – notably climate change and ageing populations – will require ongoing focus and a continued willingness to embrace change and find ways to adapt. But if all this sounds overly dramatic or futuristic, rest assured that this isn’t mere future gazing: The technologies that will enable this brave new world are already emerging, particularly when it comes to the bus networks in metropolitan areas. It is therefore time for authorities and operators to sit up and take note. In the future, public transport will be as convenient to use as turning the key in a car today.6 The drivers for change Why are significant changes in the transport sector inevitable, especially when it comes to public transport? An array of macro factors are converging, ensuring that more of the same is no longer an option. Climate change has rightly moved to the top of the agenda for governments and businesses in the transport industry alike. Last October, the UK government announced plans for full decarbonisation of the country’s transport sector as part of its broader plans for net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Decarbonisation of public transport is a vital step in the battle against climate change; it is also a huge and complex project which will require masses of new regulation and funding. Then there are changing living and working patterns to consider. By 2030, one in five people in the UK will be aged 65 or over, while in 50 years’ time there will be an extra 8.6 million people in the UK of that age bracket – a population roughly equivalent to that of London. Older people of course have very different public transport requirements, which will not only drive greater demand for mobility, but also demand for different routes and timings. Commuting will account for a smaller proportion of public transport journeys, while visits to public services such as health centres will increase. Meanwhile, amidst all these changes, regulation in the transport industry is changing too. Legislation to make public transport systems more streamlined also has a major role to play, with the Bus Services Act, and its support for moves toward franchised models outside of London, a prime example.7 Public transport’s role in enabling commuting is also changing in line with new working practices. Even before Covid-19 many countries were moving towards a more knowledge-based economy. As flexible working becomes increasingly commonplace, accelerated by the culture shift that has arisen in the pandemic’s wake, workers are more likely to be based at home some or all of the time, or travelling to work outside of normal office hours. While it is too early to understand the true impact of Covid-19 on working practices, the reality is that this transition was already underway. In September 2019 it was reported by the CIPD that 54% of workers have the option to work outside of typical 9-5 office hours , while.... 68% of professionals here in the UK have stated that they would like the option of working outside of core hours. Home working has therefore increased enormously over recent years, and Covid-19, together with improvements to technologies such as video conferencing and collaboration tools, seem certain to continue this trend on a powerful trajectory. And of course, the development of new business models is also changing the way we use public transport. It is well documented that younger generations are much less likely to own traditional status symbols such as houses or cars, and are instead more used to accessing their needs as services – hence the preference for ridesharing over owning private cars. Meanwhile, amidst all these changes, regulation in the transport industry is changing too. Legislation to make public transport systems more streamlined also has a major role to play, with the Bus Services Act, and its support for moves toward franchised models outside of London, a prime example.8 Meeting change with developing technology The transport sector, then, must respond to an array of evolving consumer demands and wider macro factors. To do so, it must look at a range of major technological developments – and we are now at a point where many of these developments are moving towards wider roll- out, particularly when it comes to bus services. Clearly, buses themselves are evolving dramatically. The development of both electric and autonomous vehicles is having, and will continue to have, a substantial impact on the delivery of public bus services. Bus networks are becoming cleaner and more efficient all the time as the very vehicles populating them become cleaner and more efficient on an individual level. However, some of the most dramatic technological innovations in the public sector are happening behind the scenes and relate to the intelligent generation and analysis of data. The Internet of Things (IoT), for example, is having a substantial impact on bus services, particularly when combined with the move to Cloud computing and the adoption of flexible mobile IP networks. By embedding smart sensors into all the buses within a fleet, for example, bus services can make smarter, more informed decisions in terms of staffing and scheduling, dynamic re-routing around disruptive incidents, and maintaining their fleets. Smart sensors might include location trackers (linked to dynamic screens in-vehicle and at stops, to keep passengers informed of the schedule), cameras to monitor passenger numbers, and sensors monitoring engine performance, as well as connected devices keeping track of driver health, wellbeing and performance. 9 It all makes for much greater visibility and intelligence across the bus network, and can help power the development of services that are truly in line with passenger needs. Many of these innovations are already in place – most of us are familiar with vehicles which automatically announce the next stop, for example – but as they begin to work together en masse, public transport providers will gain extraordinary new levels of visibility, business intelligence and responsiveness – which translates to more convenience for passengers. AI and machine learning have a crucial role to play in this evolving landscape too, by enabling public transport providers to analyse and make tangible use of the vast and growing volume of data generated by IoT. To illustrate, consider the requirement to ensure social distancing and restore passenger confidence by communicating live passenger loading information, enabling people to see whether an approaching bus has capacity or not. IoT technology can tell us the present level of loading; but passengers need to know the level when the bus arrives – accounting for those alighting in the meantime. This is where the combination of IoT and machine learning can have a transformative impact. By meshing IoT information with historic data we can accurately predict future loading, offering reliable information that helps passengers and restores confidence in bus travel. Similarly, blockchain and quantum computing are two new areas of evolving technology which can be used to solve highly complex problems such as those in relation to bus ticketing and intelligent scheduling. Tomorrow’s transport today Collectively, these technological innovations will drive a new level of convenience and responsiveness in the public transport sector, particularly when it comes to bus services, which was impossible just a few short years ago. Scheduling and routing tailored precisely to passenger needs; services which effortlessly flex up and down according to demand; highly efficient and de-carbonised buses, proactively monitored and maintained. We may not yet be in the era of flying cars, but tomorrow’s transport is starting to take shape today, thanks to technology developments which can meet multiple drivers for change. Later in this book we will explore those technological developments in more detail and outline how the more intelligent and sophisticated transport network of the future is taking shape today.Next >